Temperatures were above average, but the amount of precipitation was split.

April was another warm month, but not as warm as March was. Great Falls set one record last month.

It’s a little obvious where the record was set. It was on the 23rd, although the 22nd was very close to the record. Temperatures were about 4 ½ degrees above normal last month, and the low temperatures were above normal as well.

The coldest days of the month, the 6th and the 15th, also brought the most snowfall to the city. More than 5” of snow fell on the 6th while about an inch and a half fell on the 15th. Most of the rain fell on the 12th when over a half inch of rain fell. Precipitation was actually far above normal last month, with about an inch more than usual falling in Great Falls.

One of the warmer days also had the strongest winds in Great Falls, but no wind gust greater than 50 mph was recorded last month.

 

Helena saw similar temperatures, but below normal precip.

While temperatures looked far above normal, the cooler days balanced it out. Temps were about 3.5° above normal throughout the entire month. Precipitation was below normal in the capitol last month by about 30%. Most of the precip was recorded on the 6th when 0.2” of a rain/snow mix fell.

The strongest sustained wind came at the end of the month while the strongest gust came at the beginning of the month. Again, there wasn’t a wind gust above 50 mph reported in Helena.

One thing you probably noticed was that there was no information from the 17th. The information I use for these posts are the official numbers from the National Weather Service. There were no records from that day, but following trends, temperatures were around normal both days.

 

The outlook for April and blog post regarding the tornado outbreak at the end of February were shelved for an important reason. For the past couple months, I have been working on a side project that I hope to unveil soon.

That side project has been taking up most of my free time, which is usually when I write these blog posts. Posts by me will be less common for the foreseeable future as I continue working on this project. I will continue to post monthly wrap ups (hopefully closer to the beginning of the month) and will let you know when the project is complete.

As always, if you have any questions or feedback, send me an email or drop me a line on my Facebook page.

-Steve

April temperatures averaged above normal across the state. Precipitation distribution was mixed.

Montana Weather/Precipitation Summary April 2012

April temperatures averaged above normal across the state. Some areas were as much as 5 degrees above normal. The warmest departures were across the southern half of the state. Precipitation distribution was mixed. Above normal precipitation fell across the north central and northeast, and scattered pockets across the rest. Some below average pockets were scattered across the state. Winds were lighter than normal in April. A gust to 85 mph was recorded at Deep Creek RAWS. Montana was under mean ridge of high pressure during April. Usually, a ridge of high pressure is displaced more westward, giving the state a general westerly flow. This change contributed to the above normal temperatures for the month. Refer to NCDC’s State of the Climate report for the latest monthly discussion: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/.

Temperatures across the state averaged 45.9F, 2.9 degrees above normal. This was the 33rd warmest April, and the sixth consecutive month with above normal temperatures. This was also the warmest April since 1992. Temperatures anomalies were greatest over northeastern Montana. For the period October through April, temperatures averaged 34.3F, or 3.4F above normal (the 5th warmest of record). This was the warmest of this period since 1999-2000. The statewide average temperature for the past 12 months is 1.8F above normal.

Precipitation varied widely across the state. Above normal departures were mainly across the north central and northeast portions. Overall, April averaged 0.17-inches above normal, or 1.50-inches. This was 113% of normal, and the 28th wettest April of record. The mean precipitation excess over the past 12 months is 1.55-inches and the fourth consecutive month to average above normal precipitation statewide. For the period October through April, precipitation averaged 7.05-inches, or 0.68-inches above normal, and the 39th wettest of record. April snowfall averaged 3.4 inches across the state, or 3.3-inches below normal. This was the 42nd lowest April total of record. This was also the lowest average April snowfall since 2004. For the period from October through April, an average of 45.9 inches of snow has fallen. This is the 33rd lowest of record and the lowest since 2004-05.

Wind speeds were below normal in April. The average of 9.6 mph was 0.2 mph below average, and the 20th calmest of record. For period from October through April, an average of 9.2 mph was 0.1 mph above normal, and the 20th calmest of record.

Soil moisture conditions across the state rank as the lowest since 2002. After the very wet spring of 2011, soil moisture conditions have been mostly below-normal since August 2011.

April 1-5
Windy conditions of March continued for the first few days of April, with gusty winds in many areas of the state. Some of the strongest winds occurred in southwest Montana, with gusts to 60 mph at Norris Hill. Temperatures were near normal during this period, except on the 4th, when temperatures were much above normal, and Havre set a new daily high temperature of 74F.

April 6-19
This was a variable period with periods of precipitation, and bouts of both cold and warm weather. On the 5th and 6th, snow fell across most areas of the state. A point near Fishtail
(Stillwater) reported 22 inches, with amounts of 5 to 9 inches common in many areas. After the snow, high pressure caused lows to drop to 3F at Georgetown Lake on the 8th, for the month’s lowest. A rapid warm-up on the 11th brought record warmth to Missoula, Butte and Bozeman. Missoula topped out at 78F and Drummond hit 81F. A storm system in central Montana brought over two inches of rain to the Highwood area, with around one inch amounts over a large portion of north central Montana. Another system pushed across southern Montana on the 13th-16th, bringing around an inch of precipitation to several locations across southern and southeast Montana.

April 20-24
Windy conditions accompanied a warming trend that started on the 20th. A location southeast of East Glacier recorded a gust to 85 mph, while winds to 72 mph were recorded just east of East Glacier. Temperatures warmed to record levels on the 22nd and 23rd at many locations across western, central and northeastern Montana. Miles City reached 91F on the 23rd, while Rudyard reached 90F. Thunderstorms moved through southwest, central and southeast Montana on the 23rd. Gusts to 65 mph occurred at Fort Smith (Carbon) and Belgrade.

April 25-30
The largest storm of the month occurred from the 27th-29th. Up to six inches of precipitation fell over the Big Snowy Mountains, and 2.5 feet of snow. High amounts also fell over the Bridgers, Highwoods, Little Belts, Bears Paws and Crazys. Even at lower elevations, 1.5 inches of rain fell at Havre and Lewistown. This storm pushed into eastern Montana with over two inch amounts reported. Soil moisture values rebounded from the dry conditions earlier in the month.

Team up with ABC 5 / FOX 5 and "Stay Fit with 5" at the Ice Breaker Road Race in Great Falls Sunday April 22.

Calling all runners, joggers, walkers, hikers, sprinters, steppers, striders, and gliders. Team up with ABC 5 / FOX 5 and "Stay Fit with 5" at the Ice Breaker Road Race in Great Falls Sunday April 22. It's not too late to register yet, just go to https://www.signmeup.com/site/online-event-registration/81485 Avid runners are encouraged to join me in the 5 mile race. With forecast temperatures running in the 60s and 70s at race time, we might as well call this race the Ice Melter. Last year's Ice Breaker was my first foot race, probably since high school gym class, and I felt the effects. And sweat a lot, which is our bodies way to keep us cool, kind of like our own personal weather system. So, remember to drink lots of water. I've tried to train over the past year to better prepare for this time. And I always enjoy taking a breather and having a chance to discuss the weather with a variety of folks, and it helps me realize how much it impacts us. The weather is something we all share, whether it's enjoying sunshine, shoveling snow, seeking shelter from storms, or choosing to run through a wintry mix of rain and snow, as was the case in last year's Ice Breaker. So sunny and dry conditions will be a nice change of pace. I'm glad to trade in the gloves for sunglasses, but I'll welcome any weather. Bring it on...

What do you think? What type of weather conditions do you like to run in? A cool and breezy day to keep your body comfortable, or a warm calm day with no wind to fight? Let us know by dropping your comments here.

Also look for our very own Tom Wylie and Steve Newton in the one mile race. And find our special Ice Breaker Forecast tonight on ABC 5 / FOX 5. Please come join us at the Ice Breaker, we appreciate your participation and support.

Adam

Above normal temperatures across the country, and Montana got in on those warm temperatures.

March was an extremely warm month for many cities east of the Rockies, and Montana got in on some of that warmth. NOAA announced on April 9 that March was the warmest on record for the United States.

Over 7,500 daily high temperature records were broken in March 2012, including more than 500 all-time highs in the month of March. Glasgow recorded the warmest March on record, with all but three days of March being at or below average.

Great Falls didn’t set any records last month, but tied one high temperature record.

Looking at the monthly graph, there are two real candidates for the day that tied the record: the 22nd and the 31st. It’s actually the last one. We closed out March matching the record of 71° set back in 1976. Last year, it wasn’t until May 12th Great Falls broke above 70°. Overall, high temperatures were about 7° above average and low temps 6°

We did start March hanging on to what we dealt with in February, temperatures bouncing around the average line.  The second brought the coldest temps of the month to the electric city, and we bounced around with below normal lows for the first week of the month. The two days where temperatures were far below normal (March 19 and 24) were partly due to the heaviest days of snow last month. Over 4” of snow was deposited at the airport on the 19th and almost 5” of snow was recorded on the 23rd.

Even with a high temperature of 65° on the 13th, winds were the strongest that day. The strongest gust of 63 mph and sustained wind of 53 mph were recorded. You may remember that day as winds downed power lines, sparking multiple large grass fires.

Great Falls actually saw more rain than usual last month, seeing 1.1” of liquid precip. With temperatures above normal, the amount of snow seen was below average by about 1.5”. By this time last year, March was showing signs of drying out before spring took hold and brought gray, rainy conditions to the city.

 

Helena was much like Great Falls in March: above average temps and precipitation.

The capital city set one record high temperature and tied another. The 68° recording on March 9 tied the old record set in 1972, and the 71° high on the 31st broke the 1964 record. Like Great Falls, the 31st was the first day this year to break 70°, a mark usually hit on April 14th.

Helena saw their most “extreme” weather March 18, where the vast majority of snow fell. Then again, the vast temperature swings we had at the beginning and toward the end of the month could be considered “extreme” as well.

Precipitation in Helena was above average for the month, with just under 0.9” of precip being recorded; about 33% more than what is usually seen in the capital in March. Most of the rain fell March 17-19, and most of that came down as snow. The three-day period notched all of the measurable snow in Helena for the month, about 1.4”. Last year only 1” was recorded, but normally the city sees more than 6” of snowfall.

Looking at the outlook for March, the probability of above normal temperatures and precipitation in Great Falls and Helena were “equal chance.” I am going to throw in the caveat of the lines bordering between “equal chance” and a probability of above normal temps were so close to Great Falls and Helena. We didn’t get those cold days that I expected after Daylight Saving Time started, but we did get the wet start to spring I predicted.

Interesting weather of the month goes to the winter storm that rolled through during the St. Patrick’s Day weekend. It was so much fun to say “winter storm warning” and “Happy St. Patrick’s Day” in the same weathercast.

As always, if you have any questions or feedback, send me an email or drop me a line on my Facebook page.

-Steve

I’m working on a larger blog post for next week regarding tornadoes. As I was working on it, I noticed I had to go off on tangents to explain things mentioned in the post. Therefore, I submit to you this post giving an idea of how tornadoes are measured.

As far as I can find, there was no defined measurement of the strength of a tornado before 1971. It was in ’71 when Tetsuya “Ted” Fujita (Fu-gee-ta) of the University of Chicago and Allen Pearson of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (the predecessor to the Storm Prediction Center) introduced the Fujita Scale.

The original Fujita Scale was imagined as a range from F0 to F12, serving as a link between the Beaufort Scale (which measures the strength of winds at sea) and the Mach Scale (which is used to scale the speed of sound).

Fujita and Pearson added path length and width to the storms in ’73, but we’re just going to stick with the wind speeds for the purpose of this discussion. A tornado’s rating on the scale is determined by a few things including the damage inflicted on structures and vegetation, radar tracking, and eyewitness accounts. The scaling below shows the original scale, estimated wind speeds in mph, and damage. The amount of damage ranges depending on a person’s definition of the terms.

*An F6 or stronger tornado was only a theory, and no tornado that strong has been recorded to date. Further issue comes from the damage scale of an F5 being near that of “total destruction.” I’m personally not aware of any level of damage beyond “total.”

There were some issues with this scale, though. There were instances where buildings were sustaining heavy damage in weaker tornadoes. There were also cases of buildings surviving stronger tornadoes with less damage than what was expected. One reason was buildings in areas susceptible to tornadoes were being built to better withstand the winds of a twister.

Fujita tried to fix those issues in ’92 with the “Modified Fujita Scale,” but my research found no record of the new scale being implemented. Fujita died in 1998.

 

It wasn’t until 2000 when Texas Tech University started the ‘Fujita Scale Enhancement Project.’ The school teamed with civil engineers and meteorologists to make a better scale. The Wind Science and Engineering Center at Texas Tech submitted this recommendation in 2004. There are a lot of details in it. Read it if you like, I’ll go in to some of those details below.

At the American Meteorological Society (AMS) meeting in Atlanta in 2006, the National Weather Service unveiled the “Enhanced Fujita Scale” (herein referred to as “EF”) as a replacement to the 35-year old Fujita scale. The NWS revised the scale “to reflect better examinations of tornado damage surveys so as to align wind speeds more closely with associated storm damage. The new scale has to do with how most structures are designed.” There are some countries that continue to use the old Fujita scale, but so far, I’ve only found Canada and France.

When you look at both scales side by side, there are some differences. Both of these scales approximate the wind speeds and measure the amount of damage inflicted.

Another difference in the EF Scale is the inclusion of “Damage Indicators” (DI). These 28 indicators each have their own degrees of damage. All those indicators are listed in the recommendation above.

The new scale went into effect February 1, 2007. The very next day, a tornado outbreak swept through Florida between Orlando and Ocala. Three tornadoes were confirmed in the span of less than two hours, the strongest being an EF3. Twenty-one people died in the outbreak.

The first “EF-5” tornado was designated on May 4, 2007 when a storm swept through Greensburg, Kansas and destroyed about 95% of the town. That storm was one of 123 tornadoes during a three-day tornado outbreak in the Midwest.

As of March 24th, there has not been an EF5 recorded in the states in 2012. The last EF5 was the Hinton-Guthrie tornado on May 24th, 2011 and killed 9. That tornado was part of the same outbreak that spawned the Joplin tornado two days earlier.

 

While the United States utilized the Fujita Scale in the 70s, the United Kingdom implemented their own scale for measuring tornadoes, called the TORRO scale or “T-Scale.” The U.K., as well as the majority of Europe, occasionally sees a tornado.

You may think that the U.K has no need for a scaling system like TORRO, but the odds of a person seeing a tornado in the U.K are actually better than the odds of a person seeing a tornado in the U.S.

Terence Meaden developed the T-Scale in the early 1970s, and was revealed to the public in 1975 at a Royal Meteorological Society (Britain’s equivalent to the AMS) meeting. This scale is just an extension of the Beaufort scale and a true wind speed scale.

The TORRO scale ranges from T0 to T11, but T11 is similar to the old Fujita F6 rating. Below is the scale used by the U.K. to determine a tornado’s intensity. The full details of the damage can be found here.

The nice thing with this scale is that it can be applied to any wind, even those not associated with a tornado. For example, I’m writing this as a thunderstorm is rolling through Great Falls. If the winds get strong enough, it could be classified as a T0-1 wind.

I think I’ve given you a rough idea of how tornadoes are measured. If you have any questions, send me an email or drop me a line on my Facebook page.

-Steve

Not an informational blog post, but Steve's memories of a meteorologist who recently passed away.

This blog post isn’t going to be a typical post of mine. I won’t be providing a ton of information, just my thoughts on a colleague.

Ken Reeves, who worked as an expert senior meteorologist, as well as vice president and general manager of AccuWeather, Inc. Television Network, passed away March 25th following an accident at his home. Ken spent his entire career with AccuWeather, joining the company immediately after graduating from Penn State in 1983 with his degree in meteorology. He was 50.

I first met Ken in 2010 at the AMS meeting in Atlanta. Ken usually served as one of the representatives for AccuWeather at the meetings. I didn’t speak to him until the exhibition hall opened during the main conference, although I had heard him speak earlier in the day.

I was sitting in on a discussion regarding education policy with three Penn State undergrads: Rob Lydick, who now works at WABI in Bangor, Maine; Kyle Brandt, now with WBRE in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania; and Jonathan Kegges, who works at KTTC in Rochester, Minnesota. (We all were looking to become broadcast mets, and we all succeeded.) Ken spoke a good three or four-minutes about his thoughts on educating future meteorologists. While I personally didn’t agree with some of what he said, the things I agreed with made plenty of sense.

I tagged along with the Penn State crowd throughout a good deal of the meeting, and got a chance to speak with Ken briefly that evening. The AccuWeather table at the conferences I attended always had at least a few students standing around, trying to get information about the company or dropping off resumes.

Everybody that reads this probably knows somebody like Ken. He was the type of person to approach almost anybody and strike up a conversation with them. If you approached him and started a conversation, he’d gladly give you a minute of his time if he could spare it.

When the AMS meeting in Seattle came about in 2011, I made it a point to say hello to those I met at the meeting in Atlanta and network for grad school and a potential job. I met up with some Penn State students, as well as a friend from Embry Riddle and introduced myself to some students from the University of Miami.

Ken was at the meeting again and was his usual smiling self, talking to anyone who stopped at the AccuWeather booth about the company or anything else. A couple of us stopped by and talked to him for a few minutes and reflected on the previous meeting. He asked us about our respective job hunts and when he learned we were still looking, he asked for our resumes.

Another year went by, and again I got a chance to speak with Ken, this time at the AMS meeting in New Orleans a few months ago. He remembered me from the previous meetings and asked how my job hunt was proceeding. I proudly told him that I had been hired by a TV station. He congratulated me before kindly excusing himself and striking up a conversation with an underclassman that was curious as to why everyone was crowded around this table.

Whenever I saw Ken at these conferences, he almost always talking to students or professionals, making sure everyone has enjoying themselves and getting the most out of the conference.

You will be missed Ken.

-Steve

A major winter storm moved through central Montana on March 19, 2012.

A major winter storm moved through central Montana on March 19, 2012. The low pressure area responsible for this storm moved along the eastern Montana border, then curved slightly northwest as it moved north of the Missouri River. This was the deepest low pressure area to affect Montana since April 2010. The storm produced heavy precipitation and snow from southwestern through north central Montana. With winds gusting to near 50 mph, power outages were common across north central Montana. Also, roads were closed and schools canceled as a precaution.

It’s no secret that Montanans deal with a lot of wind. The cold front that passed over Tuesday caused a lot of havoc, from grass fired that spread extremely rapidly to car accidents caused by dust reducing the visibility to zero on U.S. 87, this system was different from other cold fronts.

It’s no secret that Montanans deal with a lot of wind. The cold front that passed over Tuesday caused a lot of havoc, from grass fired that spread extremely rapidly to car accidents caused by dust reducing the visibility to zero on U.S. 87, this system was different from other cold fronts.

I dug around and found some of the stronger wind gusts from yesterday’s front. Some of the wind gusts came from what I’ve started calling “the usual suspects.”

Station Location	Wind Gust Top Speed (mph)
US 191 Mile Post 122                (Near Zortman)	81
Dellwo	75
Deep Creek	71
Judith Peak	66
Elkhorn (Near Townsend)	63
Great Falls International Airport	63
Inverness	62
Havre	61
Malmstrom AFB	56
Cut Bank	54
Saco	51
Glasgow	51
MacDonald Pass	50
Helena	46

The Jackowski Family about 6 miles South of Power sent in a report with an 83 mph wind gust!

-Steve

Hello out there! Meteorologist Nichole Langley, here!

Facebook friend Rick Moore was kind enough to share his pictures of the northern lights he took at Giant Springs Park in Great Falls last night (3/6/2012). Thanks, Rick!

Will there be another chance to see them again? You betcha! Gathering the data from the Space Weather Prediction Center's handy dandy website (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Aurora/index.html#table), signs point to yet another chance to see them tonight (3/7/2012).

Signs, Nichole? What signs? Let's break things down to brass tacks, shall we?

There are a few things that need to be in place for a northern light exposure. First, you need to make sure you live in a place that has the right magnetic latitude. At that website above, there's a nifty table that shows random cities and their respective latitudes. And wouldn't you know it? Great Falls, MT is listed! Right smack between Denver and Havana, Cuba. (Isn't it nice to see the Electric City getting some love?) According to the Space Weather Prediction Center, Great Falls sits at a magnetic latitude of 54.9.

Correct magnetic latitude? Check!

Alright. The next thing you need is an appropriate Kp level.

What's called the 'planetary Kp' needs to be high enough to actually see an aurora. Wikipedia.com describes the planetary Kp as " a reasonable way summarize the global level of geomagnetic activity." The Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Volcanologia located in Italy, describes Kp as "An indication of the level of geomagnetic perturbation on planetary scale is given by Kp index."

Essentially, Kp is a number assigned to the levels of geomagnetic activity, worldwide. The SWPC has a chart that actually measures the planet's Kp in 3 hour increments. This is what the chart looks like at 10:00am this morning.

 

 

So according to that chart which is current as of 17:05 UTC or 10:05am local time, when our friend Rick Moore took the picture at 11:30pm on 3/6, the Kp spiked from 2 from 3. It's been trending upwards ever since.

Now.

According to this chart below, Great Falls needs to be in a Kp range of around 5. Obviously, the more north you go, the less the Kp needs to be,and the more south in latitude you are, the Kp needs to be larger. Hence...the "Northern Lights."

 

 

We're currently sitting at a Kp of around 6, and I'll continue to monitor the values throughout the day.

So. This all means... what?

At our magnetic latitude of 54.9, we need a Kp around 5 to see the auroras around midnight. Tonight's forecast is shaping up to be a very nice one to see the lights. I'm forecasting mostly clear skies! Prime viewing!

The last thing you need is a little patience. If all the science pans out, and the math adds up, we should be able to see the lights tonight. Time to start crossing those fingers. If there are't any lights tonight, I'll be sure to check the Kp values for tomorrow night as well.

I know I'll be out looking for them. Will you?

 

-Nichole

 

February was average, will March be the same way? Last month was an outlook that was leaning toward average temperatures, and we got it! Let’s try riding that momentum of a correct outlook into March. The shortest month had average temperatures, and March could see them, too. For the western half of the state, including Helena and Great Falls (barely) has an equal chance of above and below normal temperatures. The dividing line runs from about the Toole/Liberty County line down to the political (vertical) Gallatin/Park County line. East of that line, there is a 1 in 3 chance of above normal temperatures. The way temperatures have shaped out the first few days of March and will shape up as Daylight Saving Time starts, we might end up above average for the month. There are of course a full three weeks after DST starts, so we could get a few really cold days to keep temps from getting to out of control.

Last month was an outlook that was leaning toward average temperatures, and we got it! Let’s try riding that momentum of a correct outlook into March.

The shortest month had average temperatures, and March could see them, too.

For the western half of the state, including Helena and Great Falls (barely) has an equal chance of above and below normal temperatures. The dividing line runs from about the Toole/Liberty County line down to the political (vertical) Gallatin/Park County line. East of that line, there is a 1 in 3 chance of above normal temperatures. The way temperatures have shaped out the first few days of March and will shape up as Daylight Saving Time starts, we might end up above average for the month. There are of course a full three weeks after DST starts, so we could get a few really cold days to keep temps from getting to out of control.

The best probability for above normal temperatures is in the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Unfortunately, the above normal temps were a reason for the tornado outbreak we saw at the beginning of the month. I am working on another blog post talking about the tornado outbreak, and that should be up within the next week.

Precipitation wise, we could see conditions getting back to “normal.”

The higher probability for above normal precip in the Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with the probability for below normal precip along the southern part of the country… is a sign of La Niña!!!!

Before you start panicking and hoarding supplies, first wait until those supplies go on sale; we’re paying enough for gas. The temperature trend in the western states is a CLOSE match a La Niña pattern, but not exact. With a “normal” La Niña, the chance of colder than normal temps would extend east more toward Montana and less toward Northern California.

Looking at both of this month’s outlooks and the typical La Niña pattern, I am leaning toward saying that there is a chance La Niña could finally present itself this month. This is not a guarantee, but with the trend I’m seeing, spring could get off to a soggy (or snowy) start.

As always, if you have any questions or feedback, send me an email or drop me a line on my Facebook page.

-Steve