Behold, a monthly outlook where the models have pretty much no idea what will happen. There's a nearly equal chance of above and below normal temperatures and precipitation, but let's take an in-depth look.

January in Great Falls and Helena was, yet again, above normal, as was the state. According to the National Weather Service office in Great Falls, this is the seventh consecutive month where temperatures were above normal. Since records were started in 1880, this past January was the 15th warmest. February is a wild card.

The Climate Prediction Center is showing an equal chance of above and below normal temperatures for February. Given the trend we’ve been seeing since last summer, I believe the above average trend may start to wane and we’ll start getting closer to average.

For the next 6-10 days, it appears we will continue the above average temperature trend. The average high in Great Falls and Helena are in the mid 30s, and the seven day forecast the day of posting shows temperatures could be in the upper 40s to around 50°.

The dashed lines on the map (you may have to view the image full-size to see them properly) show the normal temperatures to be between 25 and 30°. On the first two days of this outlook, I am forecasting temperatures in North Central Montana to be in the 40s.

Beyond that, there is the potential of some colder temperatures.

The only thing that comes to mind at the moment that could cause such temperature anomalies would be La Niña actually getting to work and drawing some cold air out of the Arctic. This appears to be what the CPC is expecting with the high probability of above average temperatures in Alaska.

For precipitation, I’m only going to include the one-month outlook due to what I see as sheer inaccuracies in previous months. Luckily the outlook is managing to run the middle of the road.

The monthly outlook seems to partly describe the conditions of a La Niña. Conditions are expected to be wetter than normal for the Ohio River valley and below average for the Southern tier of the country. The problem is that the temperature outlook goes against the typical La Niña.

Like I said in my La Niña blog post, when does anyone have a TYPICAL La Niña?

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-Steve